The SHFE tin maintains fluctuating trend. Low inventory and tight balance in supply provide bottom support for tin prices [SMM Tin Noon Review]

On December 9, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2601 contract opened slightly higher at 319,000 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound during the session. By the midday close, it closed at 315,930 yuan/mt, down 710 yuan from the previous day's settlement price. Market sentiment remained cautious, with trading volume concentrated in the most-traded near-month contract. Overnight, LME tin came under pressure, closing down 0.93% at $39,800/mt. However, during the Asian trading session, it rebounded to near $40,500/mt before pulling back to $39,940/mt, highlighting intense battles between bulls and bears.

From a macro perspective, the market awaited the outcome of the US Fed's interest rate decision. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan triggered a reversal in carry trades, with the US dollar and US Treasury yields strengthening simultaneously, putting pressure on risk assets. Domestically, although policies emphasized "more proactive fiscal measures," traditional sectors like consumer electronics entered the off-season, with procurement mainly focused on rigid restocking. While emerging demand from areas like AI and PV showed resilience, it was insufficient to fully offset weakness in traditional sectors. Structural tightness on the supply side persisted, with slow progress in production resumptions in Myanmar's Wa State, and geopolitical risks temporarily eased by the peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda.

In the short term, low inventory and a tight supply-demand balance provide a floor for tin prices. However, cautious macro sentiment and diverging demand cap the upside for a rebound. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to fluctuate around 315,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon session, with focus on signals from the US Fed and the strength of spot price follow-through.